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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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Markets traded higher today on flat volume. The SPX closed at $1259, up $4 while RUT was unchanged at $791. Trading volume was essentially unchanged from yesterday. Traders were encouraged with a reported 2.6% increase in GDP for the third quarter and a 5.6% increase in existing home sales in November (4.68 million). Two questions are prominent in my thinking about this market: when the traders return to their desks in January and volume approaches "normal" levels, in which direction will the market trend? And what event will trip up this bull run? Every talking head I hear on CNBC is bullish; they just argue over how high the markets will go in 2011. When everyone is on one side of the boat, it worries me. Although I have many bullish trades ongoing, I have a hair trigger on to take them out. In the meantime, my Jan SPX iron condor continues to be underwater with delta = -$84 and theta = +$155. The theta/delta ratio is still good, but we are nearing the limits on the call side before we have to close or adjust. It seems like a flat, sideways trading day should be in the works; after all, hasn't everyone left the office?