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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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Traders started the day on a sour note as Standard and Poor's downgraded both Greece's and Portugal's debt. This served to weaken the Euro relative to the dollar, resulting in one of the strongest days recently for the dollar. A stronger dollar normally hurts the market because it makes it more unfavorable for U.S. companies to export their goods. However, a stronger dollar also makes it easier for the U.S. to finance its debt, but that's another story. So the markets were down across the board and with higher volume as well. The sovereign debt news overshadowed two positive news items: the Case-Schiller housing price index for February increased over January and consumer confidence numbers for April also increased. Trading on the NYSE was up 39% and up 15% on NASDAQ. Trading volume for the S&P 500 jumped up to six billion shares; this makes the tenth day in succession that the S&P 500 trading volume has been above the 50 day moving average. Now the question on everyone's mind is whether this is just the beginning of a correction, or a knee jerk reaction to the S&P downgrade news. The VIX jumped to 23% on today's market action. RUT closed at $721, dropping almost $18 and the SPX lost $28 to close at $1184. SPX has a strong support level at $1180-$1182 and today's intraday low was $1182. I'll be watching to see if that support level is broken tomorrow. That would be one clue that the trend may have changed.

I removed the call hedges on my May RUT iron condor today and it now stands at a P/L of -$1660, delta = -$48 and theta = +$143. The theta/delta ratio is strong at this point, but further movement downward would actually be helpful to this position. Tomorrow afternoon we hear from the FOMC. Everyone presumes the easy credit will continue; if that presumption proves to be incorrect, we may see additional moves downward.