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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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The markets traded largely sideways this morning with many traders waiting on the treasury auction for clues; when strong demand for the treasury bonds resulted, stocks rallied briefly, but then began to falter. Some of the losses were erased in the last thirty minutes of trading. RUT matched yesterday's high of $703 but could not hold it, closing at $699, a loss of $2. SPX reached within $2 of yesterday's high before closing down $7 at $1182. Many of the talking heads attributed today's weakness to the financial difficulties in Greece, but I doubt that explanation. I think there is simply insufficient good news to propel this market higher; however, we have not had any bad news either. Hence we are caught in a narrow trading range. Trading volume was up 21% on NYSE and flat on NASDAQ; but it rebounded to above the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500. So we have increased volume on a down day - a bearish signal.

Today's candlestick on RUT was a classic Harami - a weak trend reversal signal. This particular harami is known as a Harami Cross, where the body of the candlestick is very small - essentially a doji. The psychology behind this pattern makes sense: a strong up day followed by a day of indecision - RUT traded up to yesterday's high and then down to a low and rebounded to close near the middle of its intraday range. At a minimum, we have a consolidating sideways trend, waiting for some news to drive the market one way or the other. If you want to learn more about candlesticks, read Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques by Steve Nison; it is an excellent book.

Volatility rose a bit today and that, together with the price action, helped my embedded double calendar back to breakeven. In total, the April position now stands at -$841 with delta = -$129 and theta = +$288. May's iron condor is showing a gain of $520, with delta = -$58 and theta = +$81.