Print
Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
Hits: 2124
Star InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar Inactive
 

The markets continued their surge upward most of the day but around 2:30 ET, profit taking took over. It may also be significant that the S&P 500 was approaching the 52 week highs set in January. All of this took place with a large surge in trading volume. Volume was up 25% on the NYSE and 17% on the NASDAQ. Trading volume for the S&P 500, at 4.5 billion shares, broke strongly through the 50 day moving average at 3.8 billion shares. RUT closed up $3 at $670 while the SPX ran as high as $1145 before settling back to close up $2 at $1140. For those of you who study candlesticks, you will see a classic shooting star on the RUT and SPX charts. All of this adds up to a strong possibility that the market is pausing to catch its breath here, if not pulling back a little bit. Given the recent run upward, a little profit taking appears to be very reasonable.

My March condor continues to swim in red ink; RUT's correction followed by this meteoric rise is conspiring to deal me my worst loss in some time. Today's whipsaw didn't help. The run upward today forced me to close my 680/690 call spreads. But after watching the market's action detailed above, I sold those spreads again just before the market closed. Of course, this is a risky move that I wouldn't recommend (the classic "do as I say, not as I do"). But it may help reduce some of the losses.

My April condor is faring well. I have had to roll up both the calls and the puts, but I left the May 680 calls in place as a hedge against a continued move upward. This has left this position almost perfectly delta neutral with a moderate sized positive theta to continue to drive profitability. The April 700 calls have a delta of 23 so we still need the May call hedges.