The month of April was a tough one for my family with two funerals in ten days and the associated travel. As I opened the newsletter this morning, I was shocked to see how long it has been since my last issue. I apologize and will do my best to not let this happen again.
 
The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 7399, up 62 points for a gain of 0.8%. SPX opened the week at 7228, setting up a weekly gain of 2.4%. Trading volume has only run above average twice this week and once last week. 

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 17.2% and closed today at 17.4%, essentially flat for the week.  Historically, we would not regard these volatility levels as low but given all of the market and global turmoil in just the first four months of this year, 17% seems low by comparison. After all, VIX hit 35% on March 9.

I monitor the movement of high beta stocks by tracking the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB. SPHB closed today at 141.7.5, up 2.9 points or +2.1%. SPHB opened the week at 135.7, setting up a weekly gain of 4.4%. Trading volume spiked higher on Wednesday, but that was an exception. SPHB’s trading volume has been running below the 50 dma most of the time for the last thirty days. 

The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 26,247, up 441 points or +1.7%. NASDAQ opened the week at 25,112, setting up a weekly gain of 4.5%. Trading volume continues to run at or below the 50 dma. 

It is interesting to take a “clinical” look at the charts. We have been in an extremely bullish trend since the end of March, but it doesn’t feel that way. I think the market price volatility, the Iran war and extreme political division, including significant domestic violence, has colored my views. Effectively, I missed a significant bullish run while hiding under the desk. Since March 31, the S&P 500 has gained 16%, the high beta S&P stocks, as measured by SPHB, are up 26% and NASDAQ is up 25%. Wow!

These gains are not that surprising when you look at the basic economic data. The economic outlook is very strong with strong GDP growth and large domestic capital expenditures announced and breaking ground.

If you have any questions or concerns, please contact me. I will be happy to help in any way I can.