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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) set another all-time high today, closing at 6664, up 32 points or +0.5%. SPX opened the week at 6603 for a 0.9% gain for the week. Trading volume ran along the 50 dma all week, with the exception of today’s spike, due to quadruple witching.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 15.1%, and closed today at 15.5%. VIX spiked up a bit to 16.8% on Wednesday with the FOMC announcement.

I track the movement of the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB, to monitor the movement of high beta stocks. SPHB closed at 110.6 today, down less than one point or -0.1%. SPHB opened the week at 108.0 and posted a gain of 2.4% for the week. Trading volume spiked higher yesterday after the FOMC announcement.

The NASDAQ Composite index set a new all-time high today, closing at 22,631, up 161 points or 0.7%. NASDAQ opened the week at 22,343, gaining 1.3% for the week. Trading volume remained at or below the 50 dma this week except for a move higher yesterday and a large spike today with the quadruple witching today.

This market has lived with the uncertainties of the tariffs, political tension, deportation of illegal immigrants, and the continuous noise of the protesters as background. Apparently, it is becoming old hat, and the market just motors higher, setting several all-time highs over the past two weeks.

The FOMC meeting was the event on traders’ minds for the past several weeks. It was interesting to follow the one-minute chart on SPX through the day on Wednesday. It was choppy and wandering sideways until the announcement at 2 pm ET. Then it spiked higher on the 25-basis point reduction in the federal discount rate. Then it started to weaken, and it plunged during the press conference as Powell struggled to explain the reasoning behind their decision for a 25-point reduction rather than a 50-point reduction, considered more appropriate by many economists.

I often trade the SPX Zero DTE options and Wednesday was no exception. One consequence of the discount rate battle was higher than normal implied volatility at the start of the day for the SPX options. And implied volatility did not decrease much even after the announcement. On the other hand, I gained 37% on my zero dte trade in the midst of the chaos.

The basic economic data remain positive, and the bullish nature of the market seems solid. I was most impressed with the 2.4% rise of the high beta S&P 500 stocks this week. Event risk is our main concern at this point. It won’t take much news or even rumors to cause traders to sell to lock in these gains. Stay calm and stick to your trading rules.