The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) opened lower this morning, influenced negatively by the PCE index report that may cause the Fed to leave rates unchanged at the September meeting. SPX gained 42 points today, closing at 6460 for a 0.6% gain on the day and flat for the week. Trading volume continued to run below average all week.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 15.1%, increased to a high of 16.0% today, but closed at 15.4%, effectively unchanged on the week.

I track the movement of the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB, to monitor the movement of high beta stocks. SPHB closed at 104.9 today, down 1.5 points or -1.4%.  SPHB opened the week at 104.4 and rose 0.5% on the week. Trading volume chopped above and below the 50 dma this week.

The NASDAQ Composite index closed at 21,456, down 250 points or -1.2%. NASDAQ opened the week at 21,466, thus effectively unchanged for the week. NASDAQ’s trading volume remained below average all week.

Many traders have expressed concern about the choppiness of this market. I think we often forget that today’s market reflects a discounting of the predicted future market. Hence, the tariffs spooked the market several weeks ago; then they reversed that doomsday opinion. When Trump announced the meeting with Putin in Alaska, everyone was convinced Putin was going to offer concessions to end the war with Ukraine. But those expectations were naive. Last week’s rally was triggered by Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, but then market analysts reviewed his remarks more carefully and reduced their enthusiasm.

The market reacted to the PCE index report this morning, up 0.2% from +0.3% last month, or +2.6% year over year. The market consensus feared that result may dissuade the FOMC from lowering rates at the September meeting. Monday’s market opening will show if further reflection calms or stokes those concerns. NASDAQ declined 1.2% this week while the S&P 500 was effectively flat (up 0.03%). Stay calm. The basic economic data remain positive, but traders are running from one side of the boat to the other.