To my surprise, Putin played nice this morning and the markets were relieved and rallied almost non-stop all day. SPX gained $13 to close at $1872. RUT traded even more strongly, closing up $17 at $1205. But trading volume was weak with 1.8 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading (the 50 dma = 2.4B). As expected, volatility dropped off with VIX losing a little more than a point to close at 14.5%.
RUT's stronger behavior over the past few days seems to suggest the classic "risk on" trade is in play. Of course, that is fuel for those pointing to a bubble and a needed correction. But so far, those bears have been run over.
The real estate market continues to heal; housing starts for February came in flat at 907 thousand. Building permits surged from January's 945k to 1,018k in February. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in flat at +0.1%. That sure doesn't compute for me. It seems like all of my personal budget costs are higher, from food to fuel. But the CPI suggests prices have only risen 1% over the past 12 months. It isn't surprising that one of the articles in the news today was titled, "Feds Claim CPI Up Less Than 1%". I think we have lost faith in our government telling us the truth. Maybe like 6% unemployment?
Tomorrow's big market event is Yellen's first news conference. It is likely to continue the stock market's love affair with the Fed.
