Dr. Duke's Blog

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 02 June 2009

To my surprise, the market shrugged off GM's bankruptcy and soared upward from the open this morning. So I was forced to close my iron butterfly before I lost all of the gains we had built over the past couple of weeks. I closed the trade for $20.31 as RUT was passing $513 on the way up. This resulted in a net gain of $1,470 or 6.3%. It was disappointing to give up a portion of the profits we had last week, but the key is to follow your rules and get out when you said you would - don't second guess yourself; follow the rules.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 29 May 2009

After a weak start, the market finished strong today, with the RUT index closing at $502. Recent support levels are in the range of $470-$475 and resistance is at $510-$513. As long as the RUT stays within this range, we do not need to take action on our iron butterfly trade. Currently we stand at a gain of about $3070 or 13% on our $23,375 of capital at risk. Our current time decay curves are crossing breakeven at about $455 and about $519. If The RUT continues up strongly on Monday and breaks the $510-$512 resistance, we will close the top side of the butterfly. However, it looks likely that GM will declare bankruptcy Monday or Tuesday and that will likely cause a pause in the market's gains.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 27 May 2009

The RUT index closed at $490 today - right at the midpoint of our iron butterfly with short strikes at $470 and $510. So our trade is in near perfect shape at this point. However, now that our trade is profitable, we need to be cautious and not allow our profits to get away from us. Today's time decay curve would allow the RUT to range as high as about $505 and down to about $475 before we would need to close our trade to preserve the profits. Each day that passes will allow us even more breathing room.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 22 May 2009

We have about one hour of trading left on this Friday before the long weekend and the RUT index is at $483. All is well for our butterfly; we could close it this afternoon for a 6-7% gain, but that would be premature. The time decay over the long weekend will work in our favor. On Monday, we may have sufficient gains to either take off a portion of the position or at least enter some contingency orders set to trigger and close the trade with any big moves in the market. We don't want to let this gain get away from us! Greed is just as dangerous to our trading as fear.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 20 May 2009

RUT closed at $489 today and our butterfly position is $665 in the green. The RUT chart shows pretty strong support around $475 and it has been difficult for RUT to hold anything above about $510, so we appear to be in good shape with this butterfly. Plus, we have a long weekend coming up and I would expect trading volume to start to slow on Friday... all good news for a delta neutral position. Let the time decay work for us.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 20 May 2009

Today I established an iron butterfly on the RUT index; 5 contracts of the 400-470 put spreads at $11.10 and 5 contracts of the 510-580 call spreads at $12.15 for a total credit of $11,625. Breakevens are at $447 and $533.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 20 May 2009

It has been a long time coming, but our web site is nearly finished.