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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) put on a show today, closing at 4415, up 68 points or 1.6%. SPX opened the week at 4364, setting up a weekly gain of 1.2% (yesterday’s large decline resulted in the inconsistency). Yesterday’s loss found support at the 50-day moving average (dma). Trading volume ran below the 50 dma all week.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, closed today at 14.2%, down over one point today and down nearly 8% for the week.
 
I track the Russell 2000 index with the IWM ETF, which closed today at 169.1, up almost two points or 1.1%. IWM opened the week at 174.5, setting up a gain of over three percent for the week. IWM remains far below both its 50 dma and 200 dma.

The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 13,798, up 277 points or 
2.1%. NASDAQ opened the week at 13514 for a weekly gain of 2.1%. The weekly gain was affected by Thursday’s large pullback. Trading volume ran near average all week, with the exception of yesterday. Curiously, trading volume was significantly lower on today’s strong run higher.

This strong bullish run higher began in late October and was characterized by several gap openings higher. But trading volume has not been particularly high as the market ran upward. The one exception was a volume spike on yesterday’s strong decline after Powell’s remarks.

The danger in recent markets is due to either bond auctions that result in higher yields or remarks from any member of the FOMC that may be interpreted as suggesting additional rate hikes. Case in point: consider yesterday’s severe market decline versus today’s strong bullish run higher. A weak bond auction started the decline yesterday and Powell's remarks accelerated the drop. Today, the market forgot all about it and roared higher. Note that the S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at their highs today, characteristic of a strong bull market.