The Standard and Poors 500 Index (SPX) has been locked in a sideways dance since June 25th when it closed at 2717. SPX opened this morning at 2734, and then plunged to 2716, below the the 50-day moving average (dma) at 2721. But then it rebounded and, as I write this blog, is trading up twenty points at 2734. The 50 dma has acted as a strong support level for the past couple of weeks. But these wide swings in price within a single daily trading sessions are unsettling. Monday morning's weak market tripped several stops in my positions, but by the end of the trading session Monday, the market had rebounded. Tuesday's market was exactly the opposite, opening positively and trading higher, only to give back all of those gains before the market closed.
I am sure I wasn’t alone in closing several positions Monday morning because the market was looking so weak. But then SPX recovered and traded up over 28 points to close for a nice gain. Tuesday was exactly the opposite: large positive futures leading to a positive open and a strong morning of bullish trading, but the last hour of trading gave it all back and SPX ended the day in the red.
The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) has traded much more bullishly than SPX most of this year. RUT didn’t pull back as far during the February correction and put on a remarkable run from the first of May through June 20th, gaining nearly 11% in eight weeks. The difference has continued this week with Russell posting nice gains in each trading session this week. RUT is currently trading at 1673, up 12 points. The Russell 2000 index is predominantly made up of domestic companies. These stocks may not be as spooked by the prospects of a trade war and that may explain this divergence of SPX and RUT.
The current sideways trend in the prices of the S&P 500 and the wide price swings we are seeing almost daily are more evidence of the indecision and uncertainty. Traders are nervous and they are running from one side of the ship to the other. Corporate earnings are setting records, beating analyst estimates at unusually high rates. Companies are even complaining of being unable to fill open positions! But you wouldn’t know that by watching the major market indices. Corporate earnings and virtually all of the hard economic data are very positive, but that doesn’t seem to assure traders. News is interpreted with the worst possible implications. The doom and gloom folks must be enjoying this moment in time.
The downside for those of us trading this market was illustrated Monday. The markets opened lower and continued lower, tripping several of my stops. Then the market recovered and thumbed its nose at me. Don’t let those events cause you to lose your trading discipline. Risk management is always the name of the game.
One of the characteristics of this nervous market is overreaction. A recent example is Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). Its new CEO revealed his turnaround plan for the company last week and the stock price plunged over 6% the next day. Contrast CMG with the overall market Monday and Tuesday. While the major market indices were giving back early gains, CMG gained 5%. I took advantage of that overreaction, going long CMG stock on Friday and selling a put spread on Tuesday.
This market presents many opportunities, but it remains an uncertain, nervous market. Keep your stops close.