SPX closed today at $2359, down four dollars, after bouncing off the 50 dma at $2341. This mirrors last Monday, when the 50 dma provided support for SPX. I am paying close attention to the 50 dma as my trigger for adjusting and closing positions. The Russell 2000 Index behaved even more bearishly today, breaking down through the 50 dma, and closing down $16 at $1370. But the NASDAQ Composite is still holding up rather well, closing today at $5895, down $17, but near the top of its recent trading range.
SPX and RUT are solidly in sideways trading patterns, but seem to have enough bullish support to hold the line when the bears mount a charge to the downside. My concern is what event might finally rattle the bulls. This rally was built on expectations of a better economy under the new administration, but Washington gridlock appears to remain the norm. When the bulls lose faith, it could get ugly.
Will the jobs report this Friday be the seminal event?
In the meantime, classic delta-neutral trades are a good fit for this market.